Should Our Kids Go Back to School? An Apolitical Review of COVID-19 Data.

What are the odds against dying of COVID-19?

As of July 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, there are more than 329 million people resident in the United States. Table 2 provides a breakout of U.S. population by age and the odds against dying of COVID-19, source.

Table 2: Odds of a COVID-19 Death
Age GroupU.S. PopulationCOVID DeathsCOVID Odds
< 1 Year3,783,63022171,983
1 – 4 Years15,586,272151,039,085
5 – 14 Years40,972,553371,107,366
15 – 24 Years42,594,544374113,889
25 – 34 years46,066,3781,58829,009
35 – 44 Years42,146,3524,11910,232
45 – 54 Years40,401,85610,8373,728
55 – 64 Years42,459,42325,9711,635
65 – 74 Years32,615,81343,927743
75 – 84 Years16,511,63053,796307
85+ Years6,739,05462,357108
Totals329,877,505203,0431,625

By Age Group, during the Time Period, Table 2 provides an estimate of the odds against dying of COVID-19 in the United States. For example, for a person in the “5 – 14 Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 1.107 million to one, the lowest probability of all Age Groups. At the same time, however, for a person in the “85+ Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of COVID-19 drop to 108 to one, the highest probability of all Age Groups.

Currently, in the United States, among School Aged persons, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are 229,770 to one. Among persons Working Age, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 4,024 to one. Among those persons 65 or Older, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are 349 to one. Across all Age Groups, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 1,625 to one.

As a point of reference, according to Erie Insurance, “Folk wisdom says the odds of a lightning strike are one in a million, but technically, it depends on how you run the numbers. 

For example, the odds of being struck in your lifetime are actually 1 in 15,300, according to the most recent data from the National Weather Service. The odds of being struck in a given year are closer to that one-in-a-million mark, though: 1 in 1,222,000.”

If you’re age 1 to 14, you’re about as likely to be struck by lightning in the next year as die of COVID-19.

Compared to those 65 or Older, School Aged persons are 357 times less likely to die of COVID-19. According to CDC data, persons 65 years or Older are nearly 4.0 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those under 65.

By Age Group, during the Time Period, Table 3 provides an estimate of the odds against dying of All Causes in the United States. For example, for a person in the “5 – 14 Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of ALL Causes are about 11,104 to one, the lowest probability of all Age Groups. At the same time, however, for a person in the “85+ Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of any cause drop to 10 to one, the highest probability of all Age Groups.

Currently, in the United States, during the Time Period, among School Aged persons, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 2,434 to one. Among Working Age, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 321 to one. Among those 65 or Older, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 34 to 1. Across all Age Groups, the odds against dying of All Cause are about 150 to one.

Table 3: Odds of Death, All Causes
Age GroupU.S. PopulationAll DeathsAll Deaths Odds
< 1 Year3,783,63012,405305
1 – 4 Years15,586,2722,3516,630
5 – 14 Years40,972,5533,69011,104
15 – 24 Years42,594,54423,8381,787
25 – 34 years46,066,37848,782944
35 – 44 Years42,146,35268,966611
45 – 54 Years40,401,856126,245320
55 – 64 Years42,459,423288,746147
65 – 74 Years32,615,813437,15575
75 – 84 Years16,511,630532,27731
85+ Years6,739,054659,18210
Totals329,877,5052,203,637150

According to CDC data, over all Age Groups, during the Time Period, more deaths were attributed to Pneumonia (207,687) than COVID-19 (203,043).

During the Time Period, School Aged persons were nearly twice (1.74) as likely to die from Pneumonia (780) than COVID-19 (448).

During the Time Period, persons both Working Age and 65 or Older were more likely to die from Pneumonia (43,282 and 163,625, respectively) than COVID-19 (42,515 and 160,080, respectively).

Table 4: Pneumonia and Influenza Deaths
Age GroupU.S. PopulationPneumonia DeathsInfluenza Deaths
< 1 Year3,783,63011416
1 – 4 Years15,586,2727742
5 – 14 Years40,972,55310753
15 – 24 Years42,594,54448255
25 – 34 years46,066,3781,759151
35 – 44 Years42,146,3523,941249
45 – 54 Years40,401,85610,231580
55 – 64 Years42,459,42327,3511,244
65 – 74 Years32,615,81346,3011,458
75 – 84 Years16,511,63056,7381,484
85+ Years6,739,05460,5861,390
Totals329,877,505207,6876,722

School Aged persons account for 31% of the U.S. population but only 0.221% of all COVID-19 deaths. Working Age persons are nearly 52% of the U.S. population but only 20.9% of all COVID-19 deaths. Those 65 or Older comprise 16.9% of the U.S. population, however, they represent 78.8% of all COVID-19 deaths. See Table 5.

Those who are School Aged are disproportionately less likely to die of COVID-19 than any other Age Group. They are far more likely to die of Pneumonia or Influenza.

Table 5: Odds of COVID Death by Sub-group
Age GroupPopulationPercentCOVID-19COVID Odds
School Aged102,936,99931.2%448229,770
Working Age171,074,00951.9%42,5154,024
Over 6555,866,49716.9%160,080349
Totals329,877,505100.0%203,0431,625

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