Should Our Kids Go Back to School? An Apolitical Review of COVID-19 Data.

What are the odds against dying of COVID-19?

As of July 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, there are more than 329 million people resident in the United States. Table 2 provides a breakout of U.S. population by age and the odds against dying of COVID-19, source.

Table 2: Odds of a COVID-19 Death
Age GroupU.S. PopulationCOVID DeathsCOVID Odds
< 1 Year3,783,63020189,182
1 – 4 Years15,586,272151,039,085
5 – 14 Years40,972,553311,321,695
15 – 24 Years42,594,544353120,664
25 – 34 years46,066,3781,45731,617
35 – 44 Years42,146,3523,80911,065
45 – 54 Years40,401,85610,0574,017
55 – 64 Years42,459,42323,9911,770
65 – 74 Years32,615,81340,613803
75 – 84 Years16,511,63049,871331
85+ Years6,739,05458,253116
Totals329,877,505188,4701,750

By Age Group, during the Time Period, Table 2 provides an estimate of the odds against dying of COVID-19 in the United States. For example, for a person in the “5 – 14 Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 1.463 million to one, the lowest probability of all Age Groups. At the same time, however, for a person in the “85+ Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of COVID-19 drop to 130 to one, the highest probability of all Age Groups.

Currently, in the United States, among School Aged persons, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are 245,673 to one. Among persons Working Age, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 4,351 to one. Among those persons 65 or Older, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are 376 to one. Across all Age Groups, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 1,750 to one.

As a point of reference, according to Erie Insurance, “Folk wisdom says the odds of a lightning strike are one in a million, but technically, it depends on how you run the numbers. 

For example, the odds of being struck in your lifetime are actually 1 in 15,300, according to the most recent data from the National Weather Service. The odds of being struck in a given year are closer to that one-in-a-million mark, though: 1 in 1,222,000.”

If you’re age 1 to 14, you’re more likely to be struck by lightning in the next year than die of COVID-19.

Compared to those 65 or Older, School Aged persons are 355 times less likely to die of COVID-19. According to CDC data, persons 65 years or Older are nearly 4.0 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those under 65.

By Age Group, during the Time Period, Table 3 provides an estimate of the odds against dying of All Causes in the United States. For example, for a person in the “5 – 14 Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of ALL Causes are about 12,209 to one, the lowest probability of all Age Groups. At the same time, however, for a person in the “85+ Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of any cause drop to 11 to one, the highest probability of all Age Groups.

Currently, in the United States, during the Time Period, among School Aged persons, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 2,678 to one. Among Working Age, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 351 to one. Among those 65 or Older, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 37 to 1. Across all Age Groups, the odds against dying of All Cause are about 163 to one.

Table 3: Odds of Death, All Causes
Age GroupU.S. PopulationAll DeathsAll Deaths Odds
< 1 Year3,783,63011,313334
1 – 4 Years15,586,2722,1587,223
5 – 14 Years40,972,5533,35612,209
15 – 24 Years42,594,54421,6151,971
25 – 34 years46,066,37844,5211,035
35 – 44 Years42,146,35262,852671
45 – 54 Years40,401,856115,528350
55 – 64 Years42,459,423264,573160
65 – 74 Years32,615,813401,02481
75 – 84 Years16,511,630489,06034
85+ Years6,739,054606,93711
Totals329,877,5052,022,937163

According to CDC data, over all Age Groups, during the Time Period, more deaths were attributed to Pneumonia (192,312) than COVID-19 (188,470).

During the Time Period, School Aged persons were nearly twice (1.71) as likely to die from Pneumonia (718) than COVID-19 (419).

During the Time Period, persons both Working Age and 65 or Older were more likely to die from Pneumonia (39,883 and 151,711, respectively) than COVID-19 (39,314 and 148,737, respectively).

Table 4: Pneumonia and Influenza Deaths
Age GroupU.S. PopulationPneumonia DeathsInfluenza Deaths
< 1 Year3,783,63010516
1 – 4 Years15,586,2727342
5 – 14 Years40,972,55310252
15 – 24 Years42,594,54443853
25 – 34 years46,066,3781,610151
35 – 44 Years42,146,3523,643250
45 – 54 Years40,401,8569,425577
55 – 64 Years42,459,42325,2051,240
65 – 74 Years32,615,81342,7121,453
75 – 84 Years16,511,63052,4921,478
85+ Years6,739,05456,5071,387
Totals329,877,505192,3126,699

School Aged persons account for 31% of the U.S. population but only 0.222% of all COVID-19 deaths. Working Age persons are nearly 52% of the U.S. population but only 20.9% of all COVID-19 deaths. Those 65 or Older comprise 16.9% of the U.S. population, however, they represent 78.9% of all COVID-19 deaths. See Table 5.

Those who are School Aged are disproportionately less likely to die of COVID-19 than any other Age Group. They are far more likely to die of Pneumonia or Influenza.

Table 5: Odds of COVID Death by Sub-group
Age GroupPopulationPercentCOVID-19COVID Odds
School Aged102,936,99931.2%419245,673
Working Age171,074,00951.9%39,3144,351
Over 6555,866,49716.9%148,737376
Totals329,877,505100.0%188,4701,750

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