Should Our Kids Go Back to School? An Apolitical Review of COVID-19 Data.

What are the odds against dying of COVID-19?

As of July 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, there are more than 329 million people resident in the United States. Table 2 provides a breakout of U.S. population by age and the odds against dying of COVID-19, source.

Age GroupU.S. PopulationCOVID DeathsCOVID Odds
< 1 Year3,783,63015252,242:1
1 – 4 Years15,586,272101,558,627:1
5 – 14 Years40,972,553202,048,628:1
15 – 24 Years42,594,544225189,309:1
25 – 34 years46,066,3781,07442,892:1
35 – 44 Years42,146,3522,72815,450:1
45 – 54 Years40,401,8567,2995,535:1
55 – 64 Years42,459,42317,5832,415:1
65 – 74 Years32,615,81329,8701,092:1
75 – 84 Years16,511,63037,495440:1
85+ Years6,739,05445,845147:1
Totals329,877,505142,1642,320:1
Table 2: Odds of a COVID Death.

By Age Group, during the Time Period, Table 2 provides an estimate of the odds against dying of COVID-19 in the United States. For example, for a person in the “5 – 14 Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 2.049 million to one, the lowest probability of all Age Groups. At the same time, however, for a person in the “85+ Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of COVID-19 drop to 147 to one, the highest probability of all Age Groups.

Currently, in the United States, among School Aged persons, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are 381,248 to one. Among persons Working Age, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 5,964 to one. Among those persons 65 or Older, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are 493 to one. Across all Age Groups, the odds against dying of COVID-19 are about 2,320 to one.

Compared to those 65 or Older, School Aged persons are nearly 773 times less likely to die of COVID-19. According to CDC data, only those 65 years or Older have an above average likelihood of dying from COVID-19.

By Age Group, during the Time Period, Table 3 provides an estimate of the odds against dying of All Causes in the United States. For example, for a person in the “5 – 14 Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of ALL Causes are about 15,692 to one, the lowest probability of all Age Groups. At the same time, however, for a person in the “85+ Years” Age Group, the odds against dying of any cause drop to 14 to one, the highest probability of all Age Groups.

Currently, in the United States, among School Aged persons, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 3,491 to one. Among Working Age, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 452 to one. Among those 65 or Older, the odds against dying of All Causes are about 47 to 1. Across all Age Groups, the odds against dying of All Cause are about 207 to one.

Age GroupU.S. PopulationAll DeathsAll Deaths Odds
< 1 Year3,783,6308,832428:1
1 – 4 Years15,586,2721,6909,223:1
5 – 14 Years40,972,5532,61115,692:1
15 – 24 Years42,594,54416,3532,605:1
25 – 34 years46,066,37833,9931,355:1
35 – 44 Years42,146,35248,090876:1
45 – 54 Years40,401,85689,394452:1
55 – 64 Years42,459,423206,614206:1
65 – 74 Years32,615,813313,626104:1
75 – 84 Years16,511,630385,34143:1
85+ Years6,739,054484,40014:1
Totals329,877,5051,590,944207:1
Table 3: Odds of Death, All Causes

According to CDC data, over all Age Groups, during the Time Period, more deaths were attributed to Pneumonia (150,0951) than COVID-19 (142,164).

During the Time Period, School Aged persons were more than twice (2.03) as likely to die from Pneumonia (549) than COVID-19 (270).

During the Time Period, persons both Working Age and 65 or Older were 5% more likely to die from Pneumonia (30,133 and 119,413, respectively) than COVID-19 (28,684 and 113,210, respectively).

Age GroupU.S. PopulationPneumonia DeathsFlu Deaths
< 1 Year3,783,6307714
1 – 4 Years15,586,2725441
5 – 14 Years40,972,5538450
15 – 24 Years42,594,54431252
25 – 34 years46,066,3781,173150
35 – 44 Years42,146,3522,569242
45 – 54 Years40,401,8566,749572
55 – 64 Years42,459,42318,2671,217
65 – 74 Years32,615,81331,2921,424
75 – 84 Years16,511,63039,4481,451
85+ Years6,739,05444,2561,359
Totals329,877,505144,2816,572
Table 4: Pneumonia and Influenza Deaths

School Aged persons account for 31% of the U.S. population but only 0.18% of all COVID-19 deaths. Working Age persons are nearly 52% of the U.S. population but only 20.0% of all COVID-19 deaths. Those 65 or Older comprise 16.9% of the U.S. population, however, they represent nearly 80% of all COVID-19 deaths. See Table 5.

Those who are School Aged are disproportionately less likely to die of COVID-19 than any other Age Group. They are far more likely to die of Pneumonia or Influenza.

Age GroupPopulationPercentCOVID DeathsCOVID Odds
School Aged102,936,99931.2%270381,248:1
Working Age171,074,00951.9%28,6845,964:1
65 or Older55,866,49716.9%113,210493:1
Total329,877,505100.0%142,1642,320:1
Table 5: Odds of COVID Death by Sub-group

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